Unless the political climate changes dramatically in the next year or so, it looks increasingly as though the next general election will not be fought on the grounds of what the main parties support so much as what they oppose. David Cameron hates the poor. Ed Miliband hates the Daily Mail. Nick Clegg hates himself. Nigel Farage – not that Ukip could really be considered a main party, since their current representation in Commons stands at zero – hates everything.

Despite their wildly disproportionate news coverage – and this is a bit bizarre, because nominally most of Ukip's coverage has been pretty negative, but it doesn't seem to have affected them in the polls, like, at all – I'm not actually particularly worried about a surprise Farage takeover. This is mostly because, given their current rate of 'surprise! Member of racist party for stupid people is racist and stupid' news stories, by 2015 there won't be much of Ukip left. (Or far right, as the case may be.)

(A disclaimer: doubtless not all Ukip members or supporters are racist. Probably not all of its members or supporters are stupid, which is actually a bit sadder than if they were, because it suggests a startling level of wilful ignorance. As a party and as a concept, Ukip itself is racist; and its target demographic is racists, along with the stupid and people who don't think things through. People don't like being called racist, because in this enlightened modern age any fule kno it's a bad thing. As humans our default response to criticism of our more subtle bigotry is to become defensive, because we know racism is bad and so if you call someone a racist that must mean you think they are a bad person; and no-one thinks of themselves as one of the bad guys. But you know what's worse than hurting people's feelings by calling them racist? Hurting people's feelings by being racist.)

The other reason I'm not fretting much about the stratospheric rise of Farage, who definitely didn't rule out running for Patrick Mercer's seat in Newark because he knew he probably wouldn't win and that would shatter the illusion of him as this wildly popular man of the people who just says what we're all thinking, is that a good chunk of the kind of people who are most vocal about supporting Ukip are not the kind of people who vote. These are the people who say things like “they're just as bad as each other” and think Russell Brand has anything worthwhile to say about politics, ever. It's hard enough to get politically aware people to vote, especially in secondary elections – you think pub bores who can't even be bothered to form a cogent opinion based on facts are actually going to rouse themselves enough to even register to vote, let alone actually get themselves to a polling station?

The devil's greatest trick was convincing people he didn't exist. Farage's greatest trick has been convincing people that he, a publicly-educated ex-banker employing family members while claiming possibly dodgy expenses and also telling great big lies all over the place, is somehow unlike other politicians. This is like claiming Taylor Swift writes all her own songs, or breakfast cereal makes you thin. It's a lie – a cynical, transparent marketing lie – and it's hard not to feel a bit sorry for the poor souls who believe it.

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